A comparison between direct and indirect methods available for human bite mark analysis

Comparison techniques used in bite mark analysis are many and varied, the choice of technique depending largely on personal preference. Until recently, no one technique has been shown to be better than the others, and very little research has been carried out to compare different methods. This study evaluates and compares the accuracy of direct comparisons between suspects' models and bite marks with indirect comparisons in the form of conventional traced overlays of suspects' models or a new method using photocopier-generated overlays. Artificial bite marks in pigskin were made using standardized sets of models and recorded as photographs and fingerprint powder lifts on tape. The bite mark photographs and fingerprint lifts were coded and randomized so that a blind comparison could be made with the models, traced overlays, and photocopier-generated overlays using a modified version of the American Board of Forensic Odontology Scoring (ABFO) System for Bite Marks. It was found that the photocopier-generated overlays were significantly more accurate at matching the correct bite mark to the correct models irrespective of whether the bite mark was recorded photographically or as a fingerprint lift. The photocopier-generated overlays were also found to be more sensitive at matching the correct bite marks to the correct models than the other two methods used. The modified ABFO scoring system was able to discriminate between a correct match and several incorrect matches by awarding a high score to the correct match.     

The new Basle Accord, internal ratings, and the incentives of banks

The Basle Accord of 1988 regulates how much equity banks must set aside as a cushion against the default risk. In its 1999 proposal for a new Accord, the Basle Committee seeks to introduce different equity ratios for customers of different risk levels. The proposal strongly favors external ratings as a means of risk determination. German banks, on the other hand, demand acknowledgement of their internal ratings.This paper shows that, even if assumed that banks have better diagnosis skill than external rating agencies, external ratings are better able to implement the goals of the Basle Committee than internal ratings. This is due to a lack of incentives to truthfully reveal their diagnosis results. These incentives may be provided by supervision of internal ratings, even if imperfect and only occasional. However, this requires that a fine be imposed if the supervising authority comes to a result different from the internal rating assigned by the bank.     

Efficient compensation for employees' inventions

We analyze a legal reform concerning employees' inventions in Germany. Using a simple principal-agent model, we derive a unique efficient payment scheme: a bonus which is contingent on the project value. We demonstrate that the old German law creates inefficient incentives even if litigation cost is zero. However, the new law (concerning university employees) and the pending reform proposal (concerning other employees) also fail to implement first-best incentives. With suboptimal incentives to spend effort on inventions, the government's goal, an increase in the number of patents, is likely to be missed. A part of this research was done while I enjoyed the hospitality of the University of California in Santa Barbara (Economics Department) and Berkeley (Law School). Financial aid by the Thyssen Stiftung is gratefully acknowledged. classification K 12 . J 33 . C 72     

Le développement des décideurs publics: propositions pour les années qui viennent

Sommaire: Plus que jamais, les décideurs publics doivent alimenter la décision politi-que. Ils ne sauraient y parvenir sans une mise à jour continuelle de leurs connaissances. Les dornaines traditionnels ne sauraient cependant satisfaire à leurs besoins. C'est pourquoi l'auteur propose quatre domaines de formation pour les décideurs de la fin du millénaire. La maîtrise de l'infonnation s'appliquant tant au domaine des nouvelles qui ren-dent compte des événernents sociaux ou politiques qu'au domaine de l'information de gestion qui doit rester sous le contrôle des décideurs; La sensihilitéaux valeurs montantes dans le secteur du travail, de la santé et des Affaires sociales, de la politique et de l'économie. Selon l'auteur, les décideurs publics devront passer d'une gestion organique et pragmatique des services à une gestion sur laquelle des problèmes nouveaux et des valeurs nouvelles créeront des pressions de plus en plus considérables; La connaissance des institutions d du rôle de l'État - Une certaine perte de crédibilité des institutions publiques doit être contrée. Par ailleurs, la diminution du rôle des bureaucraties ne doit pas être confondue avec la diminution du rôle de l'État; L'hahilitédans le décodage de la prospective - L'administration publique exige de ses décideurs qu'ils regardent haut et loin mêrne si le quotidien les sollicite de façon très pressante. Les décisions autonomes deviennent de plus en plus rares et les liens entre les idées et les actions exigent plus que jarnais une ouverture sur le monde. Abstract: More than ever, public decision-makers must feed the policy-making process. To do that, they must continually upgrade their knowledge. However, the conventional fields of knowledge are no longer sufficient. The author hence proposes four areas of training for the decision-makers of the twenty-first century: - the mastery of informution, involving news reports on social and political events, and management information that must be at the decision-makers' fingertips; - sensitivity to emerging values in the fields of labour, health and social affairs, politics and economics. The author believes that public decision-makers must switch from an organic, pragmatic management of services to a management mode that will be subjected to ever-growing pressure by new problems and new values; - knowledge of the institutions and of the role of the state. A certain loss of credibility of public institutions must be countered. However, reducing the various bureaucracies must not be confused with reducing the role of the state; - ability to interpret forecasts. Public administration requires decision-makers to look beyond the horizon in spite of the pressing daily tasks. Autonomous decisions are becoming increasingly rare, and the links between ideas and actions require, more than ever, an opening to the world.